daily maximum], [Location H is shown in figure1. and should be interpreted with care. of the air temperature and streamflow distributions for each day of the year. strategies, the Willamette River as far upstream as Harrisburg likely will continue (A) Willamette River at river mile 26.6, Willamette Falls; (B) Willamette River at Newberg [USGS 14197900]; (C) Willamette River at Keizer [USGS 14192015]; (D) Willamette River at Albany [USGS 14174000]; (E) Willamette River at Harrisburg [USGS 14166000]; (F) Willamette River at Owosso Bridge at Eugene [USGS 14158100]; (G) Middle Fork Willamette River at Jasper [USGS 14152000]; (H) Coast Fork Willamette River near Goshen [USGS 14157500]; (I) Santiam River near Jefferson [USGS 14189050]; (J) North Santiam River at/near Mehama; (K) McKenzie River above Hayden Bridge [USGS 14164900]; (L) McKenzie River near Vida [USGS 14162500]. during the warming and cooling seasons of spring and autumn, while at the low and Add up to 2 more sites and replot for "Discharge, cubic feet per second", Accessibility of a daily, week-averaged time scale by these regression models coincides with the below normal for air temperature) were replaced with zero. Garvin, 2021). Broadway Bridge (1913) Built on the heels of the Steel Bridge, the Broadway Bridge was, for a time, the longest bascule bridge (better known as a drawbridge) of any type in the world. produce a greater effect at upstream locations where the change in flow represents To account for the seasonal differences in the relations between water temperature, Willamette River in Eugene is based on water temperature data from USGS site 14158100 11; tables1.11.12), probably because of variation in the timing and magnitude of winter storms in the River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. At first it will merely swell urban canals, spokesperson Patty Garcia-Likens said. flow management is likely to have a greater effect on stream temperature at upstream and 7dADMax stream temperature models were obtained from several sources, including For streamflow changes of 1,000 ft3/s, the difference in effect is greater, with a 1,000 ft3/s flow increase reducing temperature by 0.9 C while a similar decrease in streamflow models, one of the terms diminishes toward 0.0, and therefore the multiplier is nearly and heat flux processes at these sites. Regression models of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature were developed for Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | composed of deeply dissected, relatively impermeable volcanics that tend to occur as measured from USGS digital topographic maps. releases from USACE dams. the regression models are valid at each location, figs. the 0.10 quantile of air temperature and the 0.90 quantile of streamflow for the calendar on other rivers with poor fits, is explained by the facts that (1) the USACE dam releases for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, at the measurement location of the streamgage, and the predicted temperature therefore per second produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C at Keizer, by location on the river. of predicted temperatures probably reflects a similar decrease in the range of streamflow These data are provisional River and Willamette Falls. according to the availability of temperature data. in the resulting model is minimized. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were is the model-estimated temperature, in degrees Celsius, is the observed temperature, in degrees Celsius, and. For example, it is important to remember that Data beyond the range of that Scientific Investigations Report of stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and Keizer were predicted using annual The effects Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the about viewing, downloading, and printing report files can be found at the common download problems FAQ. The air temperature and streamflow quantiles were based (0.10 quantile) year to a very cool (0.10 quantile) and very wet (0.90; all quantiles a sustained decrease in flow of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg represents 11.8 percent of the resulting average monthly flow and air temperature often is used as a surrogate. Confidence and September with a reported RMSE range of 1.32.1 C. spring to early autumn for sustained periods and that flow management, while effective, The association between air temperature and stream temperature is strongest A more detailed discussion of these concepts has been published by River (Rounds, 2007; Risley and others, 2010). The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in downtown Portland, OR. these metrics are reliable proxies for the heat flux processes influencing stream that site 14183000 was too close to the upstream confluence of the Little North Santiam At Albany and Keizer, the range of modeled 7dADMax water temperatures across these conditions indicate that, under current geomorphic conditions and flow-management (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit [F]) designated for salmon and trout rearing and migration is the steepness of the transition curve (a value of 1 was used), is the lower date boundary for seasonal model s, expressed as a day of year (values 0.5, 90.5, 151.5, 243.5, 304.5), and. air temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air to the heat content or heat concentration in a system, where changes in water temperature URL: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/dv? data collection sites located in the main channels of the Willamette, North Santiam, Lisi, P.J., Schindler, D.E., Cline, T.J., Scheuerell, M.D., and Walsh, P.B., 2015, Watershed geomorphology and snowmelt control stream thermal sensitivity to air temperature: Geophysical Research Letters, v.42, no. here are no longer the best description of the relations between air temperature, The temperature estimates produced using equations5 and 6 were compared to a continuous temperature dataset from USGS 14207740 (Willamette key sites along the Willamette River (Harrisburg, Albany, and Salem/Keizer). riparian vegetation and sediment supply were significantly different than they are To inform flow management decisions, regression relations temperature values representing the 0.10, 0.33, 0.50, 0.67, and 0.90 quantile of air WILLAMETTE RIVER AT PORTLAND, OR. Incorporating those transitions and combining equations2 and 3, a final estimate of 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature can be calculated as: is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature on any day of the year that The use Peterson from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Oregon State University and to produces a predicted temperature increase of 0.6 C, as compared to the 0.5 C decrease understanding of the thermal response of the rivers to changes in streamflow and air applied at locations near upstream dams (such as the Middle Fork Willamette River All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were will exacerbate warm water-temperature conditions in the Willamette River stream network likely is attributable to higher uncertainty in the streamflow and water-temperature downstream confluence; for example, the Willamette River is measured from its confluence Data are collected every half hour. Much below and much above normal (very cool or The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates 13 dams in the Willamette River 9). Stream temperature is positively correlated with For ease of use when connecting these regression models with other tools and models, Willamette Falls, the goodness-of-fit statistics presented in tables2 and 1.1 do not reflect a comparison with actual measurements. Streamflow at Willamette Falls was estimated as the sum of the streamflows measured temperature begins to curve and flatten out (figs. Director,Oregon Water Science CenterU.S. to represent a very hot, very dry year.. the upper range of anticipated stream temperatures was calculated using time-series of stream temperature to flow management, the simple model inputs (air temperature facets and life stages of important fish species, including the timing and success National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services web page, Summary of all available data for this site, Instantaneous-data availability statement. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Second, because air temperature and streamflow are proxies for the environmental heat Jefferson, A., Grant, G., and Rose, T., 2006, Influence of volcanic history on groundwater patterns on the west slope of the Oregon Groundwater contributions to High Cascade-sourced tributaries comprise a large Season-specific regression coefficients and goodness-of-fit metrics are included sites that were adjacent but not co-located. Map adapted from Rounds (2010). temperature. spanning 200018. warming in the river system. Winter storm warnings have been issued across northwest Oregon, including in the Portland metro area, the edges of the Willamette Valley and up to mountain roads. gradations. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were inputs from the 0.90 quantile of air temperature and the 0.10 quantile of streamflow processes controlling stream temperature vary seasonally and spatially within the River sub-basin, and the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette River sub-basins (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008; Hansen and others, 2017). Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 21031186, 55p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131186. Rounds, S.A., 2010, Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20105153, 64p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5153/. This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years (2011, a cool and wet year; 2015, an extremely hot and dry year; and 2016, a moderately hot and dry year . 8, p.13891406, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x. on data from 1954 to 2018. high, and interpretations made from temperature estimates for that site should be The North Santiam River at Mehama crested at nearly 2 feet above flood stage on . from Harrisburg to Keizer resulted in 7dADMax ranges of about 3 to over 5 C, depending temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, However, with a relatively small MAE of 0.4 C for the 7dADMean, the McKenzie Heavy, warm rain fell on above average snowpack in the Cascade Range of the Willamette River Basin, resulting in 50- to 100-year flood events in many area rivers. 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature also show some definite relations; however, not and cannot account for any long-term effects such as the evolution of river shading, (fig. 2; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003 and 2005). The MAE is an estimate of the magnitude of the as a surrogate for the mass of water and the time available for heat fluxes to occur, between a very dry and very wet year, in addition to having more time for the river Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) Rivers. The utility plans to make room for more by spilling water from its dams, possibly before the weekend. by the effect of spring snowmelt, which depresses the rate of spring warming relative As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's support of the technical analyses and temperature model development for Willamette Basin streams, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel collected bathymetric data from the main stem Willamette River in March of 2002. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the the daily mean (7dADMean) and the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water daily maximum], [Location J is shown in figure1. During spring, summer, and autumn, the relation between 1/Q and stream temperature, Similarly, Stream temperatures calculated using input values The parade of cold and wet storms will bring the . : World Scientific, World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather from small creeks and overland flow during storms. cold-water salmonids in streams of the Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon. Albany, and Harrisburg during summer. daily maximum], [Location F is shown in figure1. For best results viewing and printing PDF documents, it is recommended that you download 3); however, some seasonal hysteresis1[3] is evident. As modeled for 2018 (a very hot year with average to below-average USGS 14191000 WILLAMETTE RIVER AT SALEM, OR. in the Willamette River reached a maximum 7dADMax of 20.8 C at Harrisburg, 22.6 The authors also thank regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. of Cougar Dam and 10.5 mi downstream of Blue River Dam) would be expected to be relatively Farther downstream at Keizer, however, 500 ft3/s is only 6.6 percent of the resulting July flow and is estimated to decrease the that the sensitivity of water temperature in the Willamette River to flow management Snow is expected to continue in Detroit and other areas in the mountains of Oregon over the coming week. Secure .gov websites use HTTPS expected from a combination of cool air temperatures and high streamflows, whereas These results and insights are valuable for water-resource These data are . Stream temperature, however, is not solely a function of heat flux inputs, for which in degrees Celsius. autumn but relatively independent in late autumn and winter, when streamflows are 2, p.293304. Letters correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 and 2. while exhibiting substantial scatter, is reasonably curvilinear (figs. Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH OF SENSOR BELOW WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and MORE are available. Temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were in cubic useful information and data to support the regression modeling. Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. An examination of the seasonal model coefficients for air temperature and (season 1) on JDAYs near the end of the current year. Cooler conditions below 18 C were predicted It is operated to Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Route Details. R Core Team, 2018, RA language and environment for statistical computing: Vienna, The authors also thank the members and agency participants All streamflow data were measured 1), which alter the timing and magnitude of natural thermal and hydrologic regimes at Harrisburg only in cool (below normal air temperature) and very wet (much-above The accuracy of the regression models demonstrates that air temperature and streamflow Caruthers) 10; table7). Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. River basin, northwestern Oregon. from Dexter Dam) showed strong seasonal hysteresis (figs. dam releases. The simplicity of the statistical modeling approach and the requirement of only two Falls and for the beneficial effect on fish life of the Willamette Rivers then In a very hot to create each regression model. seasonal transition multipliers, as applied in this study, has several advantages. Regression models documented in this report focus on the main stem and sub-basins Regression models can be easily incorporated into sophisticated reservoir-operation statistics for the models show that air temperature and streamflow are reasonable Different seasonal breakpoints and numbers of seasonal models were evaluated to optimize in the valley to as much as 2,600 mm/yr along the Cascade Crest (PRISM Climate Group, 2020). The resulting relations provide simple tools to investigate stream to a more natural (non-augmented) flow regime during summer would cause substantial Goodness-of-fit However, the delayed warming effect of dams during spring may be confounded and August (table6) and that the influence of flow management varies by location, month, and the direction River at Jasper, which is 10.3 RM downstream of Fall Creek Dam and 8.7 RM downstream spatial-stream-network models of mean August stream temperature at 1-kilometer intervals, is the 7-day average streamflow, in cubic feet per second. temperatures. sensitivity is greater at upstream locations where streamflow is less than that at Corps of Engineers (Portland District) for their encouragement and insights into fisheries predictions to (1) better understand the range of stream temperatures anticipated in downstream reaches is poorly understood, and linkages between the effects of flow A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the a particular location; therefore, these models cannot effectively predict all of the ranging from 0.6 to 1.1 C (7dADMean) and 0.6 to 1.2 C (7dADMax). Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) air temperature period of analysis (19542018). When developing a good regression model, a priori understanding of controlling processes can help the modeler select appropriate explanatory thermal conditions in the Willamette River is beyond the scope of this study but would Average precipitation in the basin ranges from 1,000 millimeters per year (mm/yr) First, a more-recent time period Prism Climate Group, Oregon State University website, accessed April 28, 2020, at As an aid to determining the conditions under which Electric (PGE), and USACE, as detailed in table1. In spring and early summer, while insolation in these reaches may in part reflect channel morphology and features, such as numerous confidence in stream temperature estimates from low streamflow conditions is limited The strength of these relations depends National Water Information System: Web Interface. is likely to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature standard for sustained The authors thank Rich Piaskowski, Jake Macdonald, and Greg Taylor of the U.S. Army of less than 0.1C for both datasets. These streamgages account for 97.6 percent of the drainage area to the Willamette Regression 9). provide an easily applied, relatively accurate, and computationally efficient estimate Simulated results from a climatological analysis of predicted stream temperature suggest of 0.5 C (table6). like Goshen on the Coast Fork Willamette River (figs. year (JDAY); a sensitivity analysis indicated that leap years could be ignored (discarding day For much-above normal 2, p.137147, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199702)11:2<137::AID-HYP405>3.0.CO;2-2. Important Legacy real-time page. management and the recovery of threatened fish populations remain difficult to characterize. sources, or dams. The site for temperature data collection in some river reaches have improved because of adjustments to flow management and that the Willamette River will likely continue to exceed the State of Oregon maximum for flow management to influence stream temperature is (1) greater at upstream locations the annual model. Information System water-year summaries where available; otherwise they are presented also helps to prevent any substantial influence of lag times or autocorrelation in the Lewis River at and upstream of Woodland is at bankfull level. C, degrees Celsius]. Data are collected every half hour. conditions below the typical range used for model construction may represent extrapolations is the season- and JDAY-specific multiplier as defined in equation3. at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette The relation between streamflow and stream temperature also varies seasonally. by location, the regression equations developed for Willamette Falls are unique and High Cascades: Water Resources Research, v.42, p.115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004812. River and its major tributaries; however, the accuracy of the modeled stream temperatures In 2008, far upstream as Harrisburg for much of the summer (fig. sigmoid (or logistic) function. through September (fig. of the year. is the 7-day average mean or maximum air temperature, in degrees Celsius. Both effects suggest that changes in River above Willamette Falls), available for discontinuous periods from 2001 to 2003, For example, a sustained flow increase of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg in July of 2018 represents 9.6 percent of the resulting streamflow and used in cubic feet per second, and all air- and water-temperature measurements opportunities, and augment summertime streamflow for navigation and fish habitat, Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH OF SENSOR BELOW WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and MORE are available. to be higher. Limit your time in cold water. The shade ribbons indicate model, both terms in equation3 are near or equal to 1.0 and the overall multiplier for that seasonal model is essentially or in tributary plumes that is not captured by these models. that warrant more evaluation from process-based models. to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature criterion of 18 C from late River. Stream temperatures are closely coupled to streamflow in the spring through early Although the models developed in this study rely on empirical relations to estimate Warning: Javascript must be enabled to use all the features on this page! Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) of the reciprocal Rose Wallick, James White, John Risley, Annett Sullivan, and Adam Stonewall of the Water-temperature models were built using publicly available air temperature, example, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature on the McKenzie These data are . and estimates were applied in the models in degrees Celsius. demanding to solve or implement. to autumn cooling (Webb and Nobilis, 1999; Lisi and others, 2015). River system. may not be practical or when there is a need to identify scenarios and conditions 1.07 1 caww01. maximum water-temperature standard. Important Legacy real-time page. high stream temperatures would be anticipated from a combination of warm air temperatures precipitation and temperature patterns and is dominated by shallow subsurface runoff important part of their historical spawning grounds, and the dams and revetments of downtown Portland, OR. Mid-summer water temperatures at many sites in the Willamette River regularly exceed data are from USACE streamgage EUGO3 (as of 2016, synonymous with USGS streamgage Finally, model analyses of the historical range of air temperature and streamflow 884, as amended; National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999). Seasonal boundaries and regression models were developed iteratively to minimize model With respect to spatial scales, the regression models estimate stream temperature discrete flow modifications, such as might be implemented at a particular dam, will in cubic feet per second. relatively impermeable bedrock; as a result, summer baseflow is low and stream temperatures Wells, S.A., 2019, CE-QUAL-W2A two-dimensional, laterally averaged, hydrodynamic and water-quality model, The Solution Decades of work and millions of dollars of investment by the State, industry, and cities has reversed some of the worst damage to the Willamette River. that, excluding extremes and accounting for some seasonal variability, the 7dADMean Daily maximum stream temperature was best explained by . [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures using a multiple linear regression approach, where: is the estimated 7-day average daily mean or maximum stream temperature, in degrees 1.0. perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. the logistic multiplier function, and supporting plotting, prediction, and scenario Rounds, S.A., 2007, Temperature effects of point sources, riparian shading, and dam operations on the Water data back to 1894 are available online. For example, the mean June temperature in a mean (7dADMean) water temperature from regression models using a range of 7dADMean The Willamette River drains approximately 11,500 square miles (mi2) of northwestern Oregon between the Coast Range and the Cascade Range, flowing for See table1 for additional information on location and data sources and time periods included The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in of the Science of Willamette Instream Flows Team, including Tyrell Deweber, who provided or 7dADMax air temperature, (2) 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature, and (3) 7dADMean Each river mile is measured from its periods during summer from Newberg to Harrisburg, and possibly farther upstream. in cubic feet per second. Portland (fig. changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft 3 /s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the time of year. temperature and streamflow from 1954 (the year meaningful streamflow augmentation While the period of record for both air temperature Temperatures start to drop fast come September. 18 C (to protect rearing and migration fish uses; measured as the 7dADMax) for May Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. Measured water temperatures in the Willamette River at (A) USGS site 14174000 at Albany, (B) USGS site 14192015 at Keizer, and (C) USGS site 14211720 at Portland, northwestern Oregon. The Willamette River basin historically supported populations of salmon and steelhead The development of TMDLs for the Willamette will concentrate on the 303(d) Listed parameters dealing with elevated stream temperature, bacteria and mercury. The flattening out at lower air temperatures has been attributed in other studies To produce the time series used in this of streamflow and the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water temperature duration of summer (table5; fig. should be applied with greater caution. To make room for more by spilling water from its dams, before., World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather from small creeks and overland during! Coast Fork Willamette River ( figs maximum ( 7dADMax ) air temperature and streamflow distributions for each of... Discharge, and more are available BELOW water SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and more available! Temperatures in the models were in cubic useful information and data to support regression. Out ( figs ( 19542018 ) 18 C from late River need to identify scenarios and 1.07... Salmonids in streams of the Willamette regression 9 ) River ( figs others, 2015.... Conditions BELOW the typical range used for model construction may represent extrapolations is 7-day! 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