There are aspects of his swing that are very exciting and consistent with great big league hitters (his raw power and bat speed are uncommon for a shortstop, while his bent-at-the-waist hitting posture is akin to Mike Trouts and Dylan Crews), but his bat path is fairly grooved, and here the projection is that when the cement dries on Lawlars hit tool, it will be a little south of average. Those metrics illustrate the way Manzardos skill set is tailored. 3B Brayden Taylor Taylor is already a top draft prospect, with many expecting him to raise his stock throughout the season. The league-wide statistical standard at third base is very high right now due to the depth of excellent players at the top of that position group, and when you compare Vargas tools and underlying data to what constitutes an average regular at the hot corner, he tends to hover around average in terms of both contact quality and frequency, and a little below when it comes to high-end power, which is consistent with his visual evaluation. Flores will also show you an upper-80s cutter, which has more inconsistent shape but gives him a third viable weapon. The biggest fallers from 2019 are St. Johns (down 46), Minnesota (down 44), Rice (down 43), Illinois (down 34), Cal State Fullerton, California and Kent State (down 29 spots apiece). 13Florida StateACC2FL2-67711 He matriculated to Florida Atlantic, where the Owls considered him athletic enough to deploy as a two-way player during his freshman season before he focused more on pitching in 2019 and 2020. Caminero has plus-plus bat speed, but his pitch recognition and swing path are concerning. The Tigers put together a 2-1 record at the event with the lone loss coming to Iowa. He makes up for mediocre twitch and range with outstanding instincts, elegant body control, lightning-fast hands and actions, and a plus arm. Then Nelson had a dominant 2021 season spent mostly at Double-A Amarillo, striking out 163 hitters in 116.1 innings, all as a starter. Even though Wood is quite big, he has feel for tucking his hands in and getting the barrel to softer pitches on the inner half of the plate, often staying inside them and driving them to the opposite gap. That represents more turnover than the last time we conducted this exercise, as just 11 new teams entered in 2019. Power on par with Salvy seems in play here, too. Both of Painters breaking balls have huge movement. It plays as an above-average offering even though Allens raw arm strength is comfortably below average. 3 Last Week: 3-1 Overall: 5-2, 0-0 in Pac-12 (0-0 vs. Top 25) Weekend Record: 2-0 Results Feb. 21: California: L 8-4 Feb. 24-25: Rice: W 6-3, W 11-1, W 7-4 Upcoming Feb. 28: Pacific March 3-5: Cal State Bakersfield Stanford bounced back from a midweek loss to archrival Cal to sweep Rice on the weekend. Lawlars throwing stroke to first base can sometimes be a little odd, but he finds all kinds of crazy ways to contort his body and send the baseball where it needs to go, which is especially true of his feeds to second base. But more than that, he seems to have a knack for the clutch hit and seems more comfortable in those big moments than just about any other college hitter. He might have to augment his swing to get to all of that power, and the chase component threatens to drag the hit tool down, but guys who hit the ball this often and this hard tend to turn into good big leaguers. Due to an injury in 2022, Caglianone didnt see the mound, but opened his 2023 campaign with 6.2 scoreless innings, striking out nine. Hes going to get to whatever raw power he ends up growing into and has a good shot to be a middle infield regular, though probably not until 2026 or so just based on his 40-man timeline.There are mixed feelings about his defensive fit, with most of Erics sources projecting him to second base (a mix of scouts and analysts), which is where he had him coming out of high school. His power combined with his speed and defensive fit in center field give him rare upside as a 30-plus home run center fielder hitting at or near the top of whatever lineup hes in. But if Eder does have to move to the bullpen, there might be another gear of velocity in the tank, which gives him the out of being a premium reliever with two plus-plus pitches. He can absolutely fly and will occasionally do some impressive stuff at the dish, especially when he bends out over the plate to whack breaking stuff away from him. 6LouisvilleACC1KY1-1566 3B Yohandy Morales Morales is attracting first-round buzz, and for good reason after two dominant years for the Hurricanes. Graceffo starts his windup with a pronounced step backward, then marches toward the plate, throwing from a high arm slot to create a downhill approach. His fantastic bat-to-ball skill has enabled him to rake in the minors, but he has a tendency to offer at pitches that are way, way off the plate, pitches most hitters instantly know arent competitive. Dallas Baptist; 33. RHP Ryan Hawks Hawks returns to Louisville for his senior season and figures to be a big part of the starting rotation. At times, it has typical sink and tail; at others, it has sink and careens toward Allens glove side like a slider. . DH Ian Petrutz Petrutz put up big numbers as a freshman, making him a mainstay in the Terps lineup. This wasnt a gradual increase, either it happened all at once in 2019. He needs to improve at framing pitches in the bottom of the zone, especially breaking balls, which he tends to let travel too deep, making them appear to be below the zone. Wood was a divisive amateur prospect, with some scouts seeing him as a center fielder with 70 raw power projection and others seeing him as an eventual first baseman with hit tool risk. Others that made big jumps into the Top 100 include Central Michigan (No. He was on pace to start 2023 at Double-A and be in the mix for a big league roster spot at some point in 2024 if he kept hitting. We have counted down the top 100 programs in college baseball, as they stand in 2022. RHP Karson Ligon Ligon put up a solid freshman year for Miami, and while he doesnt strike many out, he doesnt want a ton either. 11Texas A&MSEC7TX20111014 The Aggies were nearly swept, needing a three-run, ninth-inning rally Sunday to salvage a game against the Pilots. While his breaking ball command is inconsistent, Sengas velocity, splitter, repertoire depth, and demonstrated durability make him a fit as no. His delivery is freaky loose, particularly in his upper back and shoulders, which we think portends better future command than hes shown so far in Oakland. HISTORY: Longest games| Longest winning streaks| Longest half inning Allens fastball has other traits that help it punch above its weight, and he commands it with machine-like regularity to the locations in which it is most effective. His trademark breaking ball, which has plus-plus spin and flashes huge depth, tends to finish in the strike zone and isnt yet a consistent putaway pitch. He still has some relief risk. The Rays gave him a $2.3 million bonus to keep him from heading to Cal and have developed him solely at short. His propensity to chase and lunge at pitches nowhere close to the zone led to a 38% K% during his September call-up. Auburns biggest concern coming out of the weekend is the status of righthander Joseph Gonzalez, who was held out due to shoulder tightness. He hit .335/.392/.591 with 24 doubles and 12 home runs a season ago and flashed promising tools defensively, including a plus arm. McGarry has three plus pitches but also the worst control on the Top 100. Previous ranking: No. Now, after what might be a delayed start to his 2023, hell be asked to hit the ground running after only playing half of last year. If Eder is wild upon his initial return to affiliated ball, it will be tough to know if hes regressed to his career command mean or if its just rust from being 17 months post-op. With Martn Maldonado and Korey Lee around, Diaz will be able to ease into the everyday waters and start some games at 1B/DH to get his bat into the lineup. 65). A big-league ready, mid-rotation starter, Waldichuks arsenal also includes a changeup that he finishes with remarkable precision, but which he reserves almost exclusively for right-handed opponents (hes only thrown one changeup to a big-league lefty). He sure looked like it last weekend, slashing .400/.471/.933 with a pair of bombs. Millers arm slot varies a little bit when he throws it, which might tip off big league hitters, but his feel for the pitch stands to improve the most of all his offerings because of its newness, which makes its raw spin rate exciting. Unranked. His ability to do this consistently is surprising considering that Peraza is a fairly aggressive hitter in general, likely to run OBPs in the .310-.320 range. After a slow start to 2022, Volpe hit .273/.355/.502 with Double-A Somerset from May through August and earned a late-season call up to Scranton. After the Reds gave him some time at first base in 2022, Steer now has experience at all four infield positions. 4 starter fairly soon even if the arrow is currently pointing down. He had Tommy John in August of 2019 and rehabbed during a 2020 season that he would have missed anyway. He returned three months later and labored through a rocky September with Norfolk, during which he struggled with walks. Despite some struggles for the Cowboys offense, Mendham stood out, slashing .333/.375/.600 with a homer and a double. A small school draft-and-dev success, Stone is starting to have that mid-rotation look after growing into more velocity and a great changeup. 22East CarolinaAmerican1NC34263851 Despite the extreme amount of chase, Rafaela only Kd at a 21% rate and also doubled his previous career high in homers with 21. When an opposing pitcher releases the ball, the scoop in Johnsons bat head is pointing at the mound with his back elbow hiked way up above his shoulder in a position that seems to defy the rules of normal human physiology. Updated: Wednesday, March 1, 2023 8:37 AM ET, Park Factors It comes out of his hand from a high arm slot that looks like the kind optimized for data-friendly ride, but the pitchs downhill angle makes it less of a weapon at the letters and actually makes it very vulnerable within the strike zone. Turang can really play shortstop, has feel for the strike zone, and makes a fair amount of contact. Cappe has a prototypical shortstops build and good feel for contact. 45BaylorBig 126TX6-11346259 Lesko hasnt thrown a pro pitch yet due to TJ rehab, but his changeup and pre-injury velocity and fastball playability demand he be one here toward the back. 59Missouri StateMVC1MO1-22374049 Tiedemann was passed over as a SoCal high school hurler in the 2020 draft due in part to an ill-timed injury. 44Cal State FullertonBig West2CA4-2915917 Simply put, hes one of the most unique offensive threats in the sport. Its tough to account for what sort of long-term impact Lees injury history will have on his defense, and Carlos Correas presence is also a factor, but in a vacuum he projects as an above-average everyday shortstop. If he can throw strikes in Allentown, hell likely crack the Phillies bullpen in 2023, and he has closer ceiling if he can throw strikes consistently. Davis plate crowding helps enable his pull-heavy approach. Hes able to pull his hands in and get the barrel on inside pitches, but he swung underneath a ton of fastballs during his 2022 season on the complex, which is why he struck out at a very scary 30% clip. Finally, Southern Miss, which dropped two of three to Illinois at home in ugly fashion, rounds out the Top 25. In four games, Chatagnier owns a 1.792 OPS with two homers and five batted in. Previous ranking: No. As of list publication, Rodriguez is one of just two catchers on Pittsburghs 40-man roster, and while its possible hes beaten out by a veteran non-roster invitee like Tyler Heineman or Kevin Plawecki, Rodriguezs defensive chops and versatility give him a shot to break camp with the big club, split time with Austin Hedges, and moonlight at one or two other positions before eventually seizing the primary catcher job. BA Newsletter: Get Analysis, Rankings Delivered To Your Inbox! Hes a lovely, loose rotator for a hitter his size and is willing to use the opposite field when pitches are away from him. When LSU hired Jay Johnson away, Berry was one of several players who transferred out of Tucson, following Johnson to Baton Rouge. The Golden Eagles will need to get back on track quickly, as they have a big week ahead, facing Mississippi State Tuesday and hosting Dallas Baptist this weekend. Except Ortiz hit 19 homers and had 60 total extra-base hits in the upper-minors last year, and while he doesnt project to produce that kind of power against big league stuff, its enough damage to project Ortizs offense above the median bar at shortstop. Plus, lvarez isnt nearly as chase-prone as Alfaro and has much more power than Bart, so he should outperform both. That isnt consistent with his career performance: Jungs 2021 chase rate, per Synergy, was just 24%, and that exploded to 37% in 2022. Still, there are all kinds of hit tool red flags here, both in the data and in Williams visual scouting report. RHP Brendan Girton The third-year right-hander lasted six innings out of relief for Texas Tech on Saturday, striking out six and allowing just three baserunners. Teams 51-60 He receives on one knee with the bases empty before utilizing a traditional crouch with runners on, and hes an acceptable receiver and ball-blocker with a plus arm that plays down due to a slow exchange. 9Texas TechBig 121TX1091838 In a typical year, wed have a couple more than that, and sometimes as many as five or six, but this year there are only two. Poised to compete for a rotation spot when 2023 camp breaks, Ortiz is one of a few high-upside Pirates youngsters who look like theyd fit in a contenders rotation. Obviously hes ranked here as if hes set to become a star player anyway. The Big East, MAC, SoCon and Southland placed three teams apiece on the list. Hes added a hard slider/cutter to his amazing-looking curveball, but his fastball still doesnt miss bats and his report reads like Aaron Sanchezs did. 71Long Beach StateBig West4CA7-8633978 There will probably be a consistent hole against fastballs up and away for Domnguez. 65). His slider execution is especially consistent, though his curveball has the more visually pleasing movement. 1 in the D1Baseball Preseason Top 25 rankings for the first time ever. During that stretch, he was also swinging and missing within the strike zone a ton. While his profile is that of an offense-first catcher, lvarez is unlikely to be a true liability back there and has more than enough stick to make up for his defensive deficiencies. Aside from his arm, OHoppes defense is sturdy if unimpressive, but his physique and ability to move fit well behind the dish, and he seems to have the workmanlike makeup typical of field general catchers. All rights reserved. Among the high school prospects, he not only had perhaps the best chance to remain at shortstop, but he also had one of the better bat-to-ball track records in the class, accumulating a 3-to-1 ball in play-to-whiff ratio on the showcase circuit. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. For the best pitching staff in the country, Beam picking up the slack will be key to a productive season. June 25 : The best-of-three CWS finals begins and concludes on either June 26 or June 27 with the crowning of the 2022 national champion. And Chourio has that kind of power. He goes out of his way to try to throw while hes on the run, and he rarely makes anything look easy the way big league shortstops tend to, so we have him projected at second base. His infield actions are smooth and athletic, his swing has a gorgeous, pronounced finish, and he has the right amount of overt physical projection that he might mature into the unteachable, star-making Goldilocks Zone, where he stays at short and also has impact power. His desert lethargy was understandable, but its still the most recent thing the industry has seen. Bat speed prodigy Luciano has encountered a few developmental speed bumps since roasting the Cal League in 2021. The A-Sun, CAA, MVC, MWC, WAC and WCC landed two teams apiece in the Top 100. A patient, discerning hitter, Carters breaking ball recognition and feel for the strike zone is excellent. While not quite as mountainous as skill set-cousins Gallo or Jorge Soler, Wiemers size and physicality set him apart from other players, even big leaguers, and he seems likely to get to power in big league games by virtue of how much raw thump he has. He had a somewhat rocky first full season in pro ball, running a FIP near 5.00 across 18 starts with Lakeland before finishing up with three fair outings at Western Michigan. The USAToday/ESPN Coaches Poll is voted on by a panel of 31 Division I baseball coaches. 97TulaneAmerican5LA6-25726064 1 team loses in college baseball, as Iowa dominates top-ranked LSU In 2022, it garnered just 8% whiffs and 13% chase during his time at Double-A, where he spent most of the season. Hamstring issues aside, Merrill is a pretty good bet to stay at shortstop. From a heuristics standpoint, you cant do much better than Rodriguezs profile. It looked like he would continue his dominant performance at the higher level. Its prudent to bake this context into how one thinks about Marte, but there are also some statistical yellow flags evident in his regular season performance as well as some harsh realities to come to grips with regarding his trajectory on defense. His overall chase rates remain a little worse than average but theyre not terrifying. This approach will probably cause Pages to produce batting averages that are actually beneath his true talent feel to hit, but its also a big part of why hes such a dangerous hitter, one likely to have peak seasons with 30-plus home runs. Quants and front office analyst types are more bearish, citing issues with Priesters fastball playability. In 2021, he hit .288/.400/.502 with 11 home runs. R: Road. House started the 2022 season very hot, slashing .325/.408/.449 with a 141 wRC+ at High-A through April before injuring his back in early May and sitting out a couple of weeks. 48Virginia TechACC12VA24593NR79 Rocchios feel for contact and his defensive ability drive a high-probability everyday profile. There arent many lefty-hitting shortstops with this kind of offensive juice. His patient approach and bat-to-ball skills from both sides of the plate inspire confidence in his ability to eventually become a reliable starter. Readers have probably seen the side-by-side mechanical comparisons of Brown and Justin Verlander, and took notice of Browns overpowering stuff during his brief 2022 big league debut. Because his bat is almost big league ready, it might make sense for Mead to learn left field or for him to debut as a DH while some sort of outfield transition happens on the side. The bat is impactful enough to consider him a high-probability big leaguer regular of some kind, even at the bottom of the defensive hierarchy. 10 Last Week: 2-2 Overall: 4-3, 0-0 in Big 12 (2-0 vs. Top 25) Weekend Record: 1-1 Results Feb. 22: Texas-Arlington: W 7-3 Feb. 24-26: Florida State: L 10-1, L 10-8, W 3-2 Upcoming Feb. 28: @ Dallas Baptist Shriners Hospital for Children College Classic (Houston) March 3: vs. Michigan March 4: vs. (4) Louisville March 5: vs. RiceAfter its big Opening Weekend performance at the College Baseball Showdown in Arlington, Texas, TCU wasnt able to build on its momentum and lost a series at home to Florida State. It has been his best in-zone bat misser thanks largely to the breadth of his arsenal. In order to access this exclusive content you must have a Baseball America Account. Cross was fairly unknown going into the 2021 season, but that changed quickly once he established himself as one of the best hitters in the country on the way to putting up a .345/.415/.621 slash line. Hollidays range, hands, actions and arm are all above average, while his baseball instincts and internal clock are both very good, and season his defensive skill set enough to project him as a long-term shortstop even if he keeps getting bigger. Others that made big jumps into the Top 100 include Central Michigan (No. With breathtaking bat speed, he wraps the head of his bat over his back shoulder, keeping it pointed toward the mound well after the pitcher releases the ball, then whips it through the zone so quickly that he still manages to make contact in front of the plate. The tailing shape on his heater is suboptimal but at times helps him miss a bat. Born in Venezuela and signed out of an Arizona junior college, Flores gained notice as a big time prospect throughout 2021, which he wrapped sitting 93-96 mph with a hammer breaking ball in the Fall League. 83NortheasternCAA2MA1N/ANRNRNR The junior backstop started all four games, slashing .526/.571/1.000 with a pair of homers and three doubles. He has no underlying swing-and-miss issues and his massive 6-foot-5 frame still has room for more strength. This level of athleticism might be an indication that Rodriguez will find a way to mature into more raw power despite not having a traditionally projectable frame. Additionally, you can subscribe to Baseball America's newsletter and receive all of our rankings, analysis, prospect insight & more delivered to your inbox every day. For a further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, please read this and this. So far in pro ball, Wood has been incredible. Mayers gorgeous left-handed swing produces impact power for a shortstop. 72Sam Houston StateSouthland1TX8-25473274 73IowaBig Ten5IA1-6676187 But the meal ticket here is still Ramos hit and power combination. He dominated Double-A for a month before he was shut down with a knee injury at the end of April, and he started having shoulder issues during his rehab. The young flamethrower has a super high ceiling and looks like he can man the front of a rotation one day, but that mostly depends on his ability to add strength. Yorkes rhythm and timing at the plate were fantastic there, though, and were inclined to dismiss his 2022 as being the result of his injuries rather than a real regression in skill or exposure of a flaw in his offense. Hes still risky as a prospect but has big upside. Hes now a bounce back prospect. Thats a 31% K% and 8% BB% across twice as many innings as the year before, when Miller was being built back up from the shortened 2020 season. Jones is a great defensive center fielder with power that might require a swing tweak to unlock. Hassells performance tanked after the Juan Soto trade, and he broke his hamate in Arizona after the regular season. A series against Gonzaga is next up this weekend. Athletic, 6-foot-6 outfielders who can rotate like Alcantara can are rare. Here he stays in the same FV tier as last year but falls within that tier due to his 2022 performance. He was a coveted prospect as a prep player, but his strong commitment to Cal Poly, where his dad coaches, and some general concerns about his physical longevity due to a back issue pushed the industrys assessment of him down, so he went to school. Partnered with the USA TODAY Sports Media Group|Powered by, Signed to the practice squad by Buffalo (BUF), NFL picks against the spread: Vic Tafurs Week 12 predictions. 1 in the Baseball America Top 25 after winning the Karbach Round Rock Classic. It isnt pretty, but some of the proof is in the data. Casas spent most of 2022 with Triple-A Worcester and hit .273/.382/.481 there amid a two-month absence to recover from a high ankle sprain. He practically straddles the plate and was hit by 20 pitches during an injury-shortened regular season, then was somehow beaned seven more times in just 17 Arizona Fall League games. Hes also worked to make himself more lithe and athletic since first arriving on the Dodgers backfields shortly after he signed, when Dodgers coaches were asking a fresh-faced Vargas to make mid-game swing-changes that incorporated more movement into his conservative cut. Yorkes 2021 pro debut was a rousing success, as he hit .325/.412/.516 across two A-ball levels as a teenager. He loads his hands high and cuts down at the ball, which makes him tough to beat in the upper two thirds of the strike zone because Peraza is so short to those locations. Lesko is arguably the most polished and complete high school pitching prospect to come along in a decade. Vargas is a bankable, big league-ready hitter with moderate upside, while Cappe is a risky low-level prospect with huge upside. VIDEOS: Mississippi State tosses 1-hit shutout to win2021 CWS title|Watch Miss. He is otherwise a major league-ready fourth starter. Diaz is a viable defensive backstop, but he hasnt ever had to deal with the grind of a full season back there, peaking at 51 starts at catcher in 2021. They were joined in the top five by Stanford, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Wake Forest, which entered the top five after . Its long been seen as a potential, maybe even an obvious move, due to both Soderstroms below-average defense as a backstop, and as a way of protecting his offensive performance from the dings and scratches that are part and parcel with everyday catching. He has a surprisingly authoritative left-handed cut for a player of his stature and shows you lovely all-fields ability to hit, snatching hanging breaking balls and inner-third fastballs to his pull side and spraying lots of middle-away fastballs to the opposite field. The swing particulars of an 18-year-old arent especially important, and Colliers skill set gives him star-level ceiling, this is just a specific, key area to be sensitive to as he develops. Davis has huge, plus-plus raw power, and will be a star if he can stay behind the plate or a solid everyday first baseman if he cant. Volpes uppercut swing will allow him to get to impact power for a middle infielder. Hes hit 57 home runs combined the last two years while running sub-30% groundball rates and average launch angles in the 22-25 degree range, both of which are extreme by big league standards. When you consider that Miller lost a lot of developmental time to COVID and being buried on A&Ms depth chart, you can start to get excited about how much potential growth remains for him. His hard-hit and barrel rates are already well above what is typical for a big league shortstop, and he still has more room for mass on his frame. Hes competing for a D-backs rotation spot. 64) and Georgia Southern (No. Hes a plus rotational athlete, his hands are exceptionally strong, he can drive his top hand through contact to punish pitches at the top of the zone and he sometimes alters his footwork and the bend in his lower half to dip down and barrel low pitches. It makes sense that there has been some second base experimentation here over the last few years, as Ramos range and actions make it plausible that he could eventually fit there, and Colson Montgomerys third base projection might force the issue. It was exciting that the lanky and projectable Ramirez hit that well as a teenager in full-season ball, though his minuscule walk rate (6.9%), especially during a year when automated balls and strikes seemed to inflate FSL walk rates, was at least a yellow flag. 1 team loses in college baseball, as Iowa dominates top-ranked LSU, Trio of heavy-hitters down three top-10 teams Friday night in college baseball, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. It seemed as though he had potential landing spots in the 2022 drafts top 10 picks, but he ended up parachuting to 18, and signing for an over-slot $5 million. If he develops even a 40-grade hit tool, hell hit 30 annual bombs and it wont matter where he plays. Its hard to know how much of that was caused by the back issue, which may have been compromising his movement. Georgia; 34. Mauricio has developed as well as could have been rationally hoped when he signed. Brown is the Mewtwo of pitchers, engineered as a facsimile of another powerful entity using science and technology. He has a loose arm, a frame built for eating innings, and a repeatable delivery. Batys swing has made it tough for him to lift the ball in games, but a 2022 tweak may have unleashed the beast. Previous ranking: No. Still, Mauricio owns a 40% chase rate and has a career .300 OBP in the minors. The biggest fallers from 2019 are St. Johns (down 46), Minnesota (down 44), Rice (down 43), Illinois (down 34), Cal State Fullerton, California and Kent State (down 29 spots apiece). He has the prototypical starters frame at a broad-shouldered 6-foot-6, and the pacing and look of his delivery evoke Gerrit Cole. Turang is so defensively gifted that he is almost certain to have a significant and lengthy big league career, especially now that shifting is banned. 40-Grade hit tool, hell hit 30 annual bombs and it wont matter where plays... 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