(ConservativeJournal.org) The midterms are just around the corner. Spencer is the Democratic County chairman in Clay County, about 240 miles south of Chicago. Abbott did a really good job of tying ORourke with Biden and the border crisis and them being on the same page, and voters bought it.. But it does mean that the 2020s may bring the greatest threats to the countrys basic stability since those dark and tumultuous years. While two points might not seem like much, that tiny difference tells a compelling story. Reason to act now, else risklosing generations of progress made in enfranchising Black and brown communities. . Ships from and sold by RAREWAVES-IMPORTS. While Texas Democrats still face daunting historical odds having not carried the state in a presidential electionsince 1976 or won statewide since 1994 parallels can be drawn to Arizona, another border state where Republicans hold has eroded. The states shifting demographics had given Democrats hope, as margins at the top of the ticket have shrunk in recent years. Each of these 10 states is projected to shed one seat:. Receive breaking news and original analysis - sent right to your inbox. No state in the blue section has a law on the books banning abortion before fetal viability, while almost all of the red states are poised to restrict abortion rights if the Republican-appointed Supreme Court majority, as expected, overturns Roe v. Wade. As the distance widens between the two sections, she said, there are all kinds of potential for really deep disruptions, social disruptions, that arent just about our feelings and our opinions., To Podhorzer, the growing separation means that after the period of fading distinctions, bedrock differences dating back to the countrys founding are resurfacing. As a result, Texas might seem like a lost cause to Democrats across the nation. Blue State May Finally Turn Red, Polling Shows (ConservativeJournal.org) - The midterms are just around the corner. We then provided a free response box. Jake Grumbach, a University of Washington political scientist who studies the differences among states, told me that red states, as a group, are falling behind blue states on a broad range of economic and social outcomesincluding economic productivity, family income, life expectancy, and deaths of despair from the opioid crisis and alcoholism. The rest were either undecided or preferred someone other than the top three candidates. Spencer drew only 18 percent of the vote. Data for 2022 are likely to show "massively more divergence", predicts Mr Warshaw. Spencer, who has been involved in Democratic politics since the early 1990s, said his party affiliation has not been a helpful calling card for him in his community. In fact, all the Democratic states here, comprising 242 electoral votes, had gone blue since at least 1992. Its discouraging, and it causes the party apparatus and structure to just fall apart.. The RED WAVE did not happen, Flores wrote in a fiery Tweet after her apparent defeat on Tuesday. As with financial loss, however, concerns about quality of life are not causing members of the majority party to turn against their governors in either red or blue states. No Democratic candidate for governor has won more counties than Poshard since Dan Walker won the governorship in 1972. Many of the cities and states that saw their economies bounce back the most from the pandemic-induced slump were those with Republican leaders, who were typically more likely to undo restrictions as they saw them as too excessive. Well, I found out this morning, shes on a ventilator., When asked if he knows anyone who has succumbed to the illness, Spencer said, Oh yeah, I know a lot of people thats died from COVID.. Beyond determining who will occupy governors offices, these contests will shape our nations direction in the coming years. The trend of population shifts from Democratically dominated blue states to Republican-controlled red states only accelerated in the COVID-era of the past 2 years, according to census data and other information from companies like U-Haul. "The migrants are being used as pawns in a politically charged election, intentionally sowing chaos so the governors can say, 'You're getting a taste of your own medicine.'. That kind of track record can make the state actually look geographically deep red even though Democrats currently hold every statewide elected office. This survey provides fresh evidence that the nations four most populous states remain firmly located on opposite sides of our partisan divide, with two in the red camp and two in the blue. Follow him@davemckinney. Assisted by student research assistants at the Rose Institute of State and Local Government, we divided responses into three categories: economic reasons, political and policy reasons, and personal reasons. The state with the most outbound migration by population was California, with more than 343,000 people leaving the state. People do, and that accounts for why Democrats keep winning governors races in Illinois during the past quarter century despite not having a message that resonates throughout all 102 counties. That progress, though, stopped after 1980, and the gap remained roughly unchanged for the next three decades. It seems unlikely that the Trump-era Republicans installing the policy priorities of their preponderantly white and Christian coalition across the red states will be satisfied just setting the rules in the places now under their control. In that year, the Republican Party was in power so the "blue states" were the states projected to go to incumbent Gerald Ford and the "red states" were projected to go to Democrat challenger Jimmy Carter. No gubernatorial candidate since at least the Roaring 20s posted a winning margin that large in Cook County. As a consequence of the nations deep polarization and geographic partisan sorting, the governors of all four states, and the policies they advance, are safe. Baileys lawsuit is pending in Sangamon County Circuit Court, where it was consolidated with other legal challenges to Pritzkers pandemic orders. Your donation keeps our trusted reporting free and accessible for all Texans and during a legislative session when lawmakers are set to tackle issues from school choice for K-12 students to school safety improvements to changes in property taxes, its critical that Texans know what lawmakers decisions mean for their futures. Either way, Nevada is the exception that proves the rule: The three blue states with the lowest vaccination rates Arizona (45 percent), Nevada (44 percent) and Georgia (38 percent) are also the three blue states with the highest hospitalization rates, as well as three that Trump came closest to winning in 2020. But then again, that is how a democracy works, he said, and Im not sure what there is to be done about it.. I definitely feel for the people in the red areas of Illinois because you know if the Chicago area has enough people to determine the course of the state, [red areas] are basically never going to win, Jacobson said. economies people flocked to red states and abandoned blue ones in 2022. Our house was steeped in the melodic hum of Spanish, Cantoneseand English, hushed only by the sound of the front door slamming as my parents shuffled out for work. Whats becoming clearer over time is that the Trump-era GOP is hoping to use its electoral dominance of the red states, the small-state bias in the Electoral College and the Senate, and the GOP-appointed majority on the Supreme Court to impose its economic and social model on the entire nationwith or without majority public support. In terms of sheer volume, the Sunshine State was followed by Texas, the Carolinas, Tennessee, Georgia, Arizona, and Idaho. All the evidence, anecdotal and empirical, is there to show that the top-of-the-ticket Democratic wins by Mark Kelly . $10.70. (Some red-state Republicans are even distantly echoing Calhoun in promising to nullifythat is, defyfederal laws with which they disagree.) Our survey asked respondents to describe their interest in moving as follows: Regardless of whether you will move, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move to another state, or would you rather remain in your current state? It turns out that lots of people are interested in moving, with partisan views contributing to the response. Schaumburg businessman Gary Rabine is also in the mix as the lone potential suburban entrant. Thats all to say downstate votes werent decisive in Pritzkers 2018 win. Rev. Maps: What's the Real Red and Blue Balance of State Government? The shooting of 19 children and two adults at a Uvalde elementary school in May touched off criticism of Republicans support of gun rights and gave Democrats hope that voters would agree the GOP had failed Texas children by repeatedly refusing over the years to limit access to firearms. And that leaves the country perpetually teetering on a knifes edge: The combined vote margin for either party across those purple states has been no greater than two percentage points in any of the past three presidential elections, he calculates. Its a phenomenon examined in stunning detail in the documentary Blue to Red: The Shifting of America airing Sunday, July 31, at 9 p.m. Eastern on Newsmax. If we have people who are in the cities and suburbs never interacting with people with a different demographic profile, and vice versa, you have people in red areas never seeing blue voters, it just further pushes the two sides away from each other, he said, and gives them less and less common ground.. CINCINNATI President-elect Joe Biden is the first person to win the presidency without carrying Ohio since 1960. For example, Republicans include strong Republicans, not so strong (weak) Republicans, and independents who lean toward the Republican Party. Indiana shares this trend with. Until Republicans figure out how to win again in Chicagos suburbs, the party and voters who support it in nearly 85% of the states counties run the risk of history repeating itself in 2022. Many have worried that these refugees may be foolish enough to bring blue-state . Nov. 9, 202212 AM Central. That's devastating for blue states, and could soon tip the balance of power in Congress in 2022. Since announcing his reelection plans last July, Pritzkers public calendar showed him booked with events on 73 days through Dec. 10. And one crucial element of that, he argues, is the return of what he calls one-party rule in the red nation.. As the nation has sorted itself into red and blue territory, places where Democrats once were competitive in state races have become more solidly Republican. Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. Sometimes, you might get hit, Spencer said in a tone where it didnt sound like he was joking. In Texas and Florida, independents are marginally adding to the incumbents lead, whereas in California and New York, disapproval from independents is not enough to overcome the Democrats large numerical advantages. 3-Day Grace Period for Mail-in Ballots to be Eliminated by Kansas Legislature, House Republicans Looking to Prevent Biden from Enacting Health Emergency Due to Abortion, Republicans Undertaking New Strategy Against Biden Admins Drilling Barriers, US Default Likely if Timely Actions Not Taken, 20 Democratic Governors Form a Network to Improve Access to Abortion, First Hearing on Border Crisis to be Held in March, Florida Senator DeSantis is Critical of Power Imbalances from DC, Senate in Kentucky Allows for Teachers to Refuse Using Kids Pronouns, Newly Nominated IRS Nominee Criticized for 80 billion Dollar Modernization Plan, South Carolina to Play Larger Role in 2024 Elections, US Supreme Court Justice Called Uncle Tom by Democrats, Mass Shootings are Uniquely American, says Michigan Gov. The winning formula Pritzker used in 2018 relied primarily on mining votes from heavily populated Chicago and its surrounding suburbs, keeping Illinois power Democratic. Defenders of the red-state model can point to other measures that show those places in a more favorable light. But the South Texas results robbed Republicans of the hoped-for narrative that Hispanic voters were abandoning Democrats in droves. In these. Its our 10th year participating in Amplify, and to celebrate, weve got $15,000 in matching funds from four generous Tribune supporters. Still, the failure of the Democrats to break a 28-year losing streak for statewide office shows the party has a long way to go. DeSantis, wrote one Democratic respondent, is crazy.. And it was another rebuke of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Beto ORourke, who lost his third election in four years. Counties dont vote. We refuse to throw in the towel and give up on a state as remarkable, freedom-loving, beautiful, diverse, industrious, and trailblazing as Texas, they said. All of these things combine to make this rural-urban divide much greater, he said. What about the voters from the other party? The governors of all four states have positioned themselves to win reelection in 2022 by retaining the support of members of their states dominant party, rendering opposition by people outside that party largely irrelevant. By that yardstick, there are 25 red states, 17 blue states, and eight purple states, where state-government control has typically been divided. On its own, the blue nation would be the worlds second-largest economy, trailing only China. Last year, the American Enterprise Institute released a (626) 376-1105, Kenneth P. Miller, J.D., Ph.D. 2023 Conservative Journal. Yet, some respondents may be taking more concrete steps toward actually leaving. Max Abrahms (right), who teaches national security and terrorism courses, warns of labeling America's red-blue divide a civil war. Put another way, in an election that . That's one of the revealing facts in the Census Bureau's annual assessment of U.S. migration released last week. Weve done an awful lot for the entire state, but, especially I think working together with Republicans, we were able to create jobs. . How are these governors and their policy agendas faring in the 2022 elections? Period.. analysis We also asked Republican respondents to choose head-to-head between DeSantis and Trump. In the meantime, a new generation of potential presidential contenders is taking shape. Throughout this report, we discuss voters as Republicans, Independents, and Democrats. We have relied on standard questions about party identification to describe these voters and have combined some categories together. The MAGA movement is not stopping at the borders of the states it already controls, Podhorzer writes. Think tank sees a lot of blue turning red in 2022 By GARY MILLER Jun 8, 2021 38 A liberal think tank says the 2022 elections will be bright red. Population exit has become a prominent issue in blue states, including California and New York, which for years have experienced negative net migration. This is not a metaphor; it is a geographic and historical reality., To Podhorzer, the growing divisions between red and blue states represent a reversion to the lines of separation through much of the nations history. . Virginia remains a blue state because, all things being equal, in statewide federal races, the Democratic nominee starts off with a clear advantage. Meanwhile, many Republicans described concerns about politics and policy, while very few Democrats did. Claremont McKenna College Director of Polling, Rose Institute of State and Local Government Pritzkers count greatly exceeded the four counties Democrat Pat Quinn won in his 2010 election and the lone county that lined up with him in his unsuccessful 2014 reelection. Now, if Glenn was to run for dog catcher against a cat, the cat would get 90% of the vote, said Spencer, who called Poshard a friend. Amplify your impact and donate now. A 13-year-old girl named Meilin turns into a giant red panda whenever she gets too excited. Democrats blamed Republican-appointed regulators for failing to prepare the grid for disasters. The prediction was purple. It may be time to stop talking about red and blue America. A series of blue states are set to lose political power in 2020 for the 2022 midterm elections, newly released data from the Census Bureau suggests. In Stock. Just32%of Texans want to make abortion laws stricter, yet Republicans bannedup to 90%of abortions,primarily affectingwomen of color. Republicans and Democrats are battling for control over Congress, while many states are busy holding gubernatorial elections to appoint a new state leader. More of the potential movers are motivated by what we categorized as personal reasons. That can't be good," Chishti said. Mostly, Republicans do well in rural areas, Democrats do well in the cities, and the suburbs are mixed but are more Republican. California lost a seat for the first time in its history. The Texas Tribune is a nonprofit statewide news organization dedicated to keeping Texans informed on politics and policy issues that impact their communities. He cited affordable housing and commute times as some of the driving factors. The pattern of Democrats contracting into more densely populated areas while surrendering big swathes of political turf is already shaping the contours of the still-early 2022 gubernatorial campaign. The 16 counties Pritzker won was the most by a Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Rod Blagojevichs 2006 reelection, when he raked in double that amount. Republicans havent led the state of Oregon since 1982. Podhorzer, like Mason and Grumbach, believes that the MAGA movements long-term goal is to tilt the electoral rules in enough states to make winning Congress or the White House almost impossible for Democrats. Red-State model can point to other measures that show those places in a favorable. Finally Turn red, Polling Shows ( ConservativeJournal.org ) the midterms are just around the corner the greatest to. Progress, though, stopped after 1980, and could soon tip the Balance power. 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